Day 172 – Punch Drunk

Where Next?
Bob Williams
Fri 3 Jun 2022 07:02
Noon Position: 34 35.8 S 088 46.8 E
Course: S Speed: 4 knots
Wind: ESE Force 4
Sea: moderate Swell: SE 2 m
Weather: overcast, mild
Day’s Run: 81 nm

The wind remains stubbornly in the ESE, though it has eased overnight and we now punch into a slightly less boisterous sea with two reefs in the main, staysail, and 20% jib. The Ineffable promises me that the wind will back into the NE later this evening and by Sunday will be in the NW at 25 knots, then SW later in the day. Presumably we will have the passage of a front to look forward to.
As mentioned a couple of days ago I was hoping that a low would insert itself to the east of the high but in fact the opposite is happening, a low is extending a front to the west of us. Hence the low is going to jam up against this high with a consequent increase in pressure gradient and stronger winds. We will just have to wait to see what eventuates.
From my experience, I reckon Australia transmits one of the best weather
facsimile services in the world but the prognoses for the Indian Ocean only go out to 48 hours so one is left guessing to some extent what happens after that. Once we get a little more east we will be in the Australia forecast area, the prognoses for which goes out to four days so then we will be in a better position to plan our weather strategies. But first we got to get east. The high is now about 500 miles SW of Cape Leeuwin. I am guessing that it will migrate across the bight and allow the frontal system to go through. With a little luck we will be able to ride the low some significant way towards Cape Leeuwin as well.
According to my climatological data the centre of the high pressure systems in the Indian Ocean should be at about 28°S at this time of year, and we should well and truly be within a westerly air flow by now. Indeed, the climate data show something like less than 10% probability of easterly winds at these latitudes in June, so I am surprised, and a little miffed, to see the highs remaining so far south. I can’t help but wonder whether this phenomenon is just a natural excursion within the norm or is in fact outside of those normal variations and perhaps has something to do with climate change. Again, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent archive of weather maps available on their website (an excellent passage planning tool) so I will definitely be looking them up when I have access to the internet to see how abnormal these current weather patterns have been.
In the meantime we continue to nudge our way south waiting for the wind to shift.
All is well.