A Good Day's Run

Where Next?
Bob Williams
Tue 18 Sep 2007 23:56
Noon Position: 39 40.5 N 073 25.8 W
Course: 230 Speed: 6.0 knots
Wind: Northeast 18 knots
Daily run: 157 miles
Ave Speed: 6.4 knots

It seems Sylph wants to get back to Annapolis. Over the last 24 hours we
have covered 157 miles, that's pretty good going. We haven't had such a
good day's run since crossing the Indian Ocean. Lots of fishing boats kept
me awake during the night and this morning I discovered another seam on my
jib had started to come apart, so about midday down it came again for more
repairs. But now are south of New York, the traffic has diminished and I
have had the opportunity to catch up on some sleep this afternoon. And I
will need some Z's in the bank for around midnight we will be rounding Cape
May and entering Delaware Bay where there is navigation and traffic to worry
Go Sylph!

Global Warming Stuff:

Continuing work on addressing Singer and Avery's demand no 2: Will global
warming severely harm human welfare and ecology?

I will start with Al Gore's book which in terms of providing resources to
verify or follow up his claims is definitely very weak with no notes,
citations or bibliography. Here is my distillation of what Gore claims will
be the consequences of unabated global warming:

1. Heat waves will kill people.

2. Increase in extreme weather events, e.g. hurricanes, tornadoes etc.
killing people and destroying infrastructure.

3. Changing rainfall patterns causing floods, droughts, and

4. Loss of soil moisture leading to reduced crop productivity and
increase in fires.

5. Melting of the Arctic ice cap leading to species extinctions and
possible shutdown of the 'Global Ocean Conveyor Belt'.

6. Melting tundra - tundra forests at risk, buildings collapse,
infrastructure at risk, 'frozen highways' not available.

7. Shifting seasons - "disruption of millions of delicately balanced
ecological relationships. . . " (p 153) contributing to 'mass extinction

8. Acidification of the oceans through carbonic acid - increase in CO2
decreases saturation of calcium carbonate - basic building block of hard
structures e.g. corals and shells.

9. Algae blooms in warmer waters fed by pollution.

10. Increase in "human vulnerability to new and unfamiliar diseases, as
well as new strains of diseases once under control." p 173.

11. Antarctic - thinner, less stable sea ice, thinner land based ice
(losing 30 billion tons of water per year - 2006 NASA study) leading to
rising sea levels and possible species extinctions.

12. Rising sea levels through melting land ice (primarily Greenland and
Antarctica) (and thermal expansion of oceans though I cannot find any
mention of thermal expansion in Gore's book) leading to destruction of human
habitats, particularly cities, displacing millions of people.

I will try to address a few of these issues each day over the next several
days, weighing Singer and Avery's arguments along with Tim Flannery's and
any other notes I might have. I don't expect I will come up with a
definitive position but I will have tried to do my bit.