Predicting Arrival
Pemandia
Peter Fabricius
Mon 13 May 2019 14:46
Predicting arrival is always a game and of course fraught with errors. “If I can keep up x knots...” but you never do “well even if is only...”. It won’t be. “So long as this tack takes me clear of...” , but it never does. Even if these things happen, you factor in wind shifts, tidal flow, leeway and still you are wrong.
But I think I have found some more accurate predictors . First I have finished the excellent Anthony Horowitz novel that Emily gave me for my birthday and I am near end of the Pepys biography , so we can’t be very far from home.
More accurate however, my lunch every day has included a stick of celery and after today’s lunch there is one stick remaining and a limp little bit. So that tells me that I will arrive sometime after lunch tomorrow and before lunch on Wednesday. Perhaps this methodology will be mentioned in the next edition of the Admiralty Manualof Navigation volume two.
I am just clear of Biscay now and in the Western Approaches. 142 miles to go but note the first paragraph above!
Peter
Sent from Yacht Pemandia