Tonight it definitely feels like the downhill run has started as we expect that we shall arrive in Richards Bay on the afternoon of Wednesday 15 October and hopefully will be there to celebrate our 32nd wedding anniversary on the 26^th when we could be out on safari. We have been extremely surprised at our good fortune with this journey so far, as can be seen from previous postings we have had benign conditions.

Of all our travels this voyage is the one that we have been most anxious about as it has the greatest potential for fierce weather. We have met people and read blogs of those who had nasty experiences with torrential winds and seas, had their boats damaged or worse and, of course, those who had no problems. Any part of this journey can be difficult as there are no protective land masses between here and Antarctica other than a few Southern Ocean islands. The area below Madagascar, we have read, can be problematic and there are different opinions on how to tackle it but the South African east coast Agulhas current in particular, is one of the most renowned in the world where gigantic waves can start if there are strong southerly winds against it. If strong southerlies are forecast then the only way to tackle it is to keep out of it, ships have been lost here so it needs treating with the utmost respect.

As always for long passages our greatest planning problem is weather information. This journey takes about 12 days but weather forecasts are only good for up to 5 and even then can change. We had a good 5 day weather window for leaving La Reunion and after that it has been essential to update everyday. So we have been approaching this trip with the utmost care: making sure the satellite phone was in good order to enable emails, having the services of a professional weather router emailing us with forecasts, downloading gribs (weather files) everyday through Mailasail our website provider, and watching the barometer's readings as an early indicator of change. One great asset as we draw nearer to Africa is the Peri Peri radio net based in Durban and we want to thank the guys who give their time to it. They provide contact via a short wave radio channel morning and evening and give weather information relating to the Mozambique Plateau and the Agulhas current which moves around and is ever changing. This has been very helpful in planning our approach to Richards Bay, providing local forecasts to use with our others and enabling us to manipulate our route to deal with the coming weather and current conditions!

The Madagascar Plateau is now over 250 miles behind us and we are midway between the Natal Basin, which we have been traversing for the last couple of days, and the Mozambique Plateau where we meet the notorious Agulhas current nearer to the coast on Wednesday morning. As Gryphon II emerged from the cover of Madagascar the placid seas became rougher and we had some 25 knot winds that helped us get speed on to cover the miles. Yesterday's run was our second best at 143 nautical miles. We motored through most of last night as the wind died away and we can't afford to lose time. Our latest day's run has just been recorded – 126 nmiles.

The big issue now is that strong southerly winds (known in S Africa as southerly busters) are forecast to begin this afternoon continuing to tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon when they weaken then become very light and give way to light easterlies on Wednesday. Wednesday is when we plan to cross the Agulhas so if nothing changes this is just right for us. Nevertheless, we shall have to cope with these strong southerlies out here hence we changed course yesterday to go much more south. This means that when these winds start we will be able to sail more with them instead of across them. We will be close hauled on a reach with the wind on the beam, it isn't going to be pleasant but sailing north west in a south-westerly blow will be a lot better than sailing west. If these southerlies fizzle out then we might end up going into Durban instead.

Fingers crossed for our canvass, we shall report on the outcome in our next posting.