NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every
year
May 24, 2012

Irene in 2011 was a reminder that tropical systems can affect the Northeast
and of the threat of inland flooding.
Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane
season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane
Research Division.
For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms
(with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to
a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will
become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category
3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named
storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s
vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be
prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of
Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South
Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that
produced only six named storms.
Favoring storm development in 2012: the continuation of the overall
conditions associated with the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in
addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical
Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, known as the Main Development Region. Two
factors now in place that can limit storm development, if they persist, are:
strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main
Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern
Atlantic.
“Another potentially competing climate
factor would be El Niño if it develops by late summer to early fall. In that
case, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation and
intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, possibly
shifting the activity toward the lower end of the predicted range,” said Gerry
Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction
Center.
"NOAA's improvement in monitoring and predicting hurricanes has been
remarkable over the decades since Andrew, in large part because of our sustained
commitment to research and better technology. But more work remains to unlock
the secrets of hurricanes, especially in the area of rapid intensification and
weakening of storms,” said Lubchenco. “We're stepping up to meet this challenge
through our Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, which has already
demonstrated exciting early progress toward improving storm intensity
forecasts."
Lubchenco added that more accurate forecasts about a storm's intensity at
landfall and extending the forecast period beyond five days will help America
become a more Weather-Ready Nation.
The seasonal outlook does not predict how many
storms will hit land. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts are
provided by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, which continuously monitors the
tropics for storm development and tracking throughout the season using an array
of tools including satellites, advance computer modeling, hurricane hunter
aircraft, and land- and ocean-based observations sources such as radars and
buoys.
NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a near-normal hurricane
season and the Central Pacific basin is expected to have a below-normal season.
NOAA will issue an updated seasonal outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in
early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.