Cyclone planning

Rhiann Marie - Round the World
Stewart Graham
Fri 8 Oct 2010 02:25
Friday October 9th 1237 Local 0137UTC       
 
22:30.28S 154:38.39E
 
We are running down our westing at a rate of knots. Only one problem - we are still not sailing and wind is now about 6 knots behind us. That is not even any use for ventilation and the boat is sticky hot.
 
It seems that the various aspects of the sheer challenge of sailing round the world, short handed have been lost on some blog readers. I tend not to go on about the gritty nature of what is required to keep the whole show moving west. I am aware how fortunate we are to be able to do this and I would hate to create the impression of a moaner. Blogs tend to contain the highlights that I think readers may be interested in. But it is tough and requires a tremendous amount of stammina and resilience as well as being adaptable to all the tasks that need kept up to date.
 
Last night I went to bed for three hours from about 2045 to 2345. It was the first time I had been to bed in three days and I slept like a log. When i got up Trish was doing fine and encouraged me to go back, which I did and after a while I nodded off till 1245. If I am a good boy perhaps I will get another three hours tonight!
 
The time through the night with little to do while under engine was spent with all the information I could muster aboard, starting to plan our sail on through the cyclone season.
 
Wind patterns and currents were studied for the various areas and timings we hope to follow. Cylone, Tropical storm and thunderstorm frequency and strengths month by month area by area were studied. Rainfall and cloud cover too as well as local wind phenomenon in the various areas.
 
How to recognise and sail out of the danger zone in cyclones and spotting them in your vicinity using only barometer was also interesting - but that's only the theory...... Most importantly of course, we want to avoid cylones in as far as possible.
 
Prevailing pressure systems and gradients together with seasonal locations of the ITCZ or ITC (the Intertropical Confluence or Convergence Zone), the monsoon phenomena were all put into the mix and the night flew by.
 
Other issues to be considered were our Christmas trip home with the family and where the boat could be safely kept while we were 10,000 miles away, and of course insurance considerations.
 
By 0700 I had the bones of a plan. Spotting significant statistical probability of reasonably favourable conditions all the way down the line to the Mediterranian. If this works out and the stats behave then it is a good program to use to extend the pacific time of a trade wind circumnavigation rather than rush all the way back to the Med by March or April, foreshortening time in areas where it would be difficult to get to ever again. But we will have to wait and see how it all pans out. It will also take a few more weeks to refine the plan. Cyclone bolt holes need to be researched and all the tools of the trade and equipment aboard well used and programmed to throw up early warning signs of danger.   
 
Having the bones of a plan, meant I needed to immediately get on with applying for an Indonesian Cruising Permit so two e-mails went off to agents in Jakarta and Bali before they were out of bed. It's all very tight but if the program works out I will be thrilled and will of course keep you posted.
 
All the reading up included studying the cultural protocols needing to be understood, as well as the incidence of crime across the Indonesian archipelago and piracy in the once notorious Malacca Straits. The upshot of it all is I am confident that we will have a plan, after a bit of fine tuning, that is both safe and secure for vessel and crew.
 
Our own health aboard has been very good on the whole trip so far. Trish has had one very bad chest infection in Antigua but since then nothing. Before embarking on this adventure I got myself fairly fit, and on my fighting weight. When travelling to tanna by plane they wanted to weigh me and Trish's comments about my weight were confirmed when the scales told me I had lost 6 - 7 kilos on the trip so far.
 
It may very well be however that on this passage it all goes back on as the passage will probably work out shorter than anticipated and we are trying to eat up everything before arriving in Australia. The strict quarantine there means that all food except tins will be confiscated. We have recently heard that some customs do not make you dump the contents of your freezer but it is a risk. We have therefor tried to run stocks down and I am on about 5 meals a day at the moment to avoid the waste of disposal. Maybe not so clever but I really, really hate waste.