The Long Way Home .....

Rhiann Marie - Round the World
Stewart Graham
Sat 5 Mar 2011 07:47
Phuket Saturday 5th March 1315 Local 0615 UTC
 
I have decided that I will plan to have to go the long way round to get home. Round the Cape of Good Hope and up the South Atlantic. Lovely.
 
While this decision has heavy consequences it is in some ways becoming easier to make as each day passes by.
 
We have been following some of the reports, mails and blogs coming out from those that are currently in the Northern Indian Ocean. They are having a terrifying time. I now do not believe that any plan can be safe and whether in a convoy or not it is a matter of luck if one is not attacked. There is almost nowhere safe on the shore side now from Yemen and Somalia in the Gulf of Aden all the way through to the North of the Suez canal. 
 
If a vessel is subject to an attack then it is likely that armed security aboard who spot an attack early and fire aggressively - and accurately - very early on may be able to dissuade the attackers. May. If the attackers however are determined and deranged and high on qat and get an accurate shot off with an RPG or AK then it is game over...
 
When these attackers have fired an RPG at a warship, I now don't believe that a convoy will offer the neccessary protection and that in fact they may provide a larger target. Five or Six yachts closing up will not persuade these maniacs to stand down when a warship does not. Lead poisoning is the only thing that will stop them. As I have said before a stint in a westen jail certainly is no deterrent to them. 
 
Although my trying to arrange a convoy was always going to be difficult (we had 868 views on our posting - but no serious enquiries) as it was late in the season I have now in any event abandoned any idea of that as being adequate protection for a North Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden passage.  
 
My contacts with armed security companies have so far not persuaded me that this is the best option. I will persue these contacts for now but I will nevertheless plan on the basis that I shall have to head south round the South of Africa in a Southern winter.
 
Our passages and anticipated timings and conditions are as follows:
 
Thailand to Maldives, 1500 nm, Early April, End of NE monsoon, Mixed conditions likely
 
Maldives to Chagos,  400 nm, mid May, rarely affected by Cyclones, SE trades and favourable currents
 
Chagos to Mauritius, 1200 nm, Late May, End of Cyclone season SE trades and favourable currents
 
Having determined to sail so far south to avoid the Somalian piracy threat of the Northern Indian ocean, I believe there is no point in trying to go to the Seychelles or round the north of Madagascar close to previous incidents. So while I would like to sail to Madagascar and to have the favourable "protected" conditions on the West side of Madagascar in the Mozambique channel, it is more likely that I will sail from Mauritius & Reunion directly to South Africa.  
 
Mauritius/Reunion to Durban, 1500 nm, Late June, Out of the Cyclone season, SE Trades and favourable currents until ........
 
the southern point of Africa when SW busters will come through and cause some of the worst wave conditions in the world over the Agulhas current.
 
The passage down the coast of Africa from Durban therefor requires some careful planning and local advice and consideration of weather. Rhiann Marie however is a very well found ship, able to make 200 miles per day. We also have well prepared 200 hp engine and newly prepared sails.
 
After coastal hopping 1,500 miles round the south of Africa, the longest passage being 250 miles, we should set off north up the southern atlantic ocean.
 
Capetown to St Helena, 1800 nm, Early August, Not the best time of year but possible all year, favourable currents and favourable winds.   
 
St Helena to Cape Verde Islands, 2,300 nm September, Not ideal time of year nor ideal route but should be possible, winds and currents OK
 
From Cape Verde this just leaves the small matter of a 1700 mile beat to Gibraltar, but Canaries might be OK too. If this leg is too contrary at the time a seasonal run from St Helena can be made to Brazil and up the South American coast to Grenada. The boat however will not be much closer to home than it would be if we left it exactly where we are right now!
 
I will now need to think about having some crew as we had already agreed that Trish would not be doing anymore long passages and due to my reckless accident she now has to commit to some more long passages ( to put it mildly ) However I am sure she will not be doing the South Atlantic so I shall have to round up a motley crew! 
 
it's one a hell of a thought when we thought we were on the home straight but some times you just have to do what you have to do. It's a big bite but I can chew very hard.
 
It's all down to me to get the back sorted now......