Madagascar here we come Day 14
Misterx
Sun 24 Nov 2024 06:25
24/11/24
8:30 am
Day 14
Mozambique Basin
D To Madagascar 199nm
DTD 1,182nm to Richard's Bay SA
Very exciting 24h with messages flying all over the place and many "what if" discussions at the chart table, perusing GRIBS and running weather models against Mr X performance... the bottom line is we are not fast and if you stay out at sea for a certain amount of time, unfortunately the bad weather will get you at some point. It is just a matter of how bad and how long you are prepared/able to take the battering.
We've been following a couple of other boats we met in Mauritius, nearly the same size as us going through the same process as we are, and logging their progress as well as ours (the curtain twitcher is indeed very much alive in me! Like to know what people are doing!). One day we are all 3 ploughing through and we'll wear whatever weather comes our way, next day it's we'll go and stand off further north and wait it out, and by the end of the day it's with what is coming, we'd better take shelter!
In the meantime we are being passed all day every day by the boats of the Oyster Rally... doing their level best to beat the weather and get into port before the storm. And no doubt they will... most are over 50 foot, have staff and go like stink... we're clocking them as doing 7/ 8/9 knots when we can only manage 5 or 6 at best...
The decision was finally made for us all yesterday afternoon, when our shore side weather gurus all agreed that carry on towards Richard's Bay in the kind of weather expected by the middle of next week would be foolhardy and extremely dangerous. It was a beautiful moment, just like the alignment of the planets... they all agreed!
So we are now aiming toward Madagascar where we will seek shelter from the storm for a few days before resuming our crossing to South Africa. This will add days and miles to our passage, but at least we'll be safe. And frankly who would do anything else when the weather to come is described very eloquently as per below, by one of the oracles... enough to make your (freshly washed) hair stand on end!!!
"If you continue toward Richards Bay, you should plan on heaving-to for at
least 48 hrs (from Wed27 night thru sometime Fri29 or Fri29 night). You
would then have 36 hrs of good weather (Sat30 morning thru Sun1 afternoon)
to reach RichardsBay.
The weather you would heave-to in would be pretty ugly initially, with
S-SSW@40g50, and possibly some squalls briefly in excess of 50k if you are
in the wrong place along the FRONT where an IMPULSE of energy may develop
(uncertain position for the possible IMPULSE of energy), with seas to
16-20'.
You should expect up to 24 hrs of wind in the 30s (above 30k sustained, and
up to 40k), with gusts in the 40s.
It then takes up to 48 hrs to drop from 30g40k to 20g27k, and for seas to
drop from 16-20' to 12'.
And another 24 hrs for seas to drop from 12' to under 10'.
So it's about a 3 day wind event, and a 4-day sea state event.
Given the potential intensity and duration of the event, it is probably a
good idea to divert to Nosy Ve. Better safe than sorry."