Wow what a difference a day makes. This time yesterday we were sailing NW into huge swells and building wind. We say a peak wind gust of 35.5 knots and swells in the 12 foot range. Last night we decided to tack South and avoid the building low pressure system that was digging down from the NE. We had a good night of sailing and closed some precious distance between us and St. Lucia. The wind has been very difficult this year as noted by the Official ARC WeatherMan, Chris Tibbs:

Chris Tibbs has updated his briefing given on Sat 20 Nov.

So what's happened to the trade winds?

The trade winds are generated by the pressure gradient between the Azores high which is normally at this time of year positioned near the Islands of the Azores and the trough of low pressure near the equator that is known as the ITCZ or Doldrums. There is also low pressure over Africa that helps to generate these breezes. This occurs most of the time however when we look at averages it tends to smooth out the times when the weather does not follow the "usual" pattern.

This year as part of the jet stream has migrated south the Azores high has been displaced by low pressure that is normally associated with the weather much further north. This is now slowly moving away but as the upper air patterns have not really changed another area of low pressure generating strong SW wind is moving into the central part of the Atlantic affecting the trade winds.

The high pressure has not gone completely and there is a weak ridge of high pressure that has been squeezed and forced south with the axis lying roughly along 13 ½ degrees N. North of 14N there is WSW-SSW winds strengthening to the north, whilst a weak version of the trade winds will be found south of about 12N.

For the northerly boats in the fleet there are strong headwinds with punishing seas; N of 20N the wind is expected to be over 20 knots with heavy squalls. Yachts S of the Cape Verde Islands are struggling with light winds heading to the SW to find the trade winds.

The vast majority of the yachts are NW of the Cape Verde Islands between 17-20N and will continue to face headwinds; lighter to the south and strongest to the north. This leaves a disappointing choice, continue on port tack and get pushed to the north in increasing wind and the prospect of headwinds until next weekend, or take a long tack to the south to the light and variable winds in the ridge and light trade winds to the south.

For anyone taking the southerly option the good news is that the ridge is expected to be slowly moving N as the current low moves away to the NE. So by 1200gmt Tuesday the trades should be found at 15N and at 1200gmt on Wednesday at 18N.

Longer term there will be a large area of squally conditions west of about 33W. This needs watching as it may develop into a small low with some strong wind on the northern side. It is difficult to predict just how strong the squalls will be, however it is likely that there will be gusts in excess of gale force within this area.

As this moves away NE, after a period of variable wind, the trades will become established again to the south and the long range forecast is for moderate to strong trades for the final 1/3rd of the crossing.

To find the trades therefore continue to head to the south, it will require a dip south at least to the latitude of St Lucia and possibly to about 12N. The alternative is a more northerly route which will give more wind but it is likely to be strong headwinds pushing you further and further north. 

We were one of the boats that took the northerly route. After he sent the above message we decided that the conditions were going to continue to deteriorate so we tacked south.

As you can see from the pictures, everyone is in life jackets and safety harnesses. No one left the cockpit for 3 days except DJ. We needed the leach line tightened on the Genoa so he “volunteered” to go forward. Actually, I think we just asked the youngest guy to volunteer and he gladly accepted. As you can see the pictures don’t do the wave action justice until you see him getting covered in the foam and spray from a wave.

Today is much nicer. Mike just cooked up eggs, bacon, potatoes, and toast for a late breakfast. Everyone is hanging out some wet laundry and using the benign conditions as a chance to cleanup.

This morning Shawn and I saw a beautiful sunrise and hope that indicates a good day ahead.