To: Brian Russell and the crew on SY “Blue Raven”  

From: Commanders’ Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789

Route:           Hampton, VA to Bermuda

Departure:   Sun aftn, May 31, 2015

Prepared: 0730edt Saturday, May 30, 2015

Summary….

1) High pressure near 38n/49w (generally between Bermuda and the Azores)

  a) the high is ridging W towards the eastern US

2) The high will edge a little SE on Sun

  a) it will still be nosing W towards the Mid Atlantic States

3) Cold front will be over the New England and extending to a low over PA

  a) the front will sag SE but stall well N of you

  b) it will probably not get S of 39n (if that)

4) SSW wind early Sun will back and become SSE to SE for a time during the afternoon

  a) flow increases to 10-15 kts and likely 12-16 kts for several hours during the evening

  b) so, will have some head winds afternoon and the 1st part of Sun night

5) The wind then clocks and diminishes during Sun night

6) On Mon, weak low over the NE US

  a) front will extend from this low down the eastern seaboard

  b) the front will be moving E

7) High pressure remains well out in the Atlantic

8) Mostly a light S flow Mon

9) By Tues morning, the cold front will stretch from Cape Cod to just off North Carolina and then down to the Florida Panhandle

  a) again, movement will be E

10) S flow will prevail

  a) still a little uncertain whether the wind varies from SSE to SSW (basically, in the 160-200 area – leaning more to the S and SSW

11) Lightest conditions likely later Wed and Wed night

12) The front gets closer on Thurs, but think it stalls/fizzles to the NW of Bermuda

  a) so, think you arrive without any fronts to deal with

13) May have a few showers or a t-storm Thurs as some activity develops out ahead of the frontal boundary 

Routing…Hampton to 35 45n/74 30w (entering stream) to 35 10n/73 50w (exiting) to around 35n/70 35w to Bermuda -

Some estimated positions below

 

Wind forecasts 

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in KTS, and time is UTC

Sun, May 31

08: 200-220/ 7-12

14: 140-160/10-15 departure around this time

20: 150-170/11-16 

Weather…Partly cloudy

Seas 3-5 ft – ESE swell

Mon, June 1

02: 170-190/ 9-14

08: 180-200/ 7-12 nr 36n/73 55w

14: 170-190/ 6-12

20: 170-190/ 8-13

Weather…Partly cloudy

Seas 3-4 ft -  ESE swell

Tues, June 2

02: 170-190/ 9-14

08: 170-200/ 8-13 nr 35n/70 35w

14: 180-200/ 8-13

20: 180-200/ 9-14

Weather…Variable clouds

Seas 2-4 ft – SE swell

Wed, June 3

02: 180-200/ 9-14

08: 170-190/ 7-12 nr 33 50n/67 50w

14: 170-190/ 7-12

20: 170-200/ 5-9

Weather…Partly cloudy

Seas 2-4 ft

Thurs, June 4

02: 180-200/ 5-9

08: 180-200/ 5-9 nearing Bermuda

14: 160-180/ 7-12 Bermuda 

20: 180-200/ 7-12 Bermuda

Weather…Variable clouds. A few showers or a passing t-storm. Most activity afternoon

Seas 3-4 ft – SE swell

Best regards, George Caras