Welcome
to the sixth 
newsletter
5th
September 2008
Two Weeks!
Yep, in just two weeks and two days, I’ll be setting
off on an extraordinary adventure… gulp!
I’d love to tell you that I am completely prepared, utterly
confident and anxious to get going. I’d love to tell you that the website
has been inundated with people eager to cast their vote for the first
destination and I’d love to report that Industry Leaders and
Entrepreneurs have been falling over themselves to sponsor the W2N
project… I’d love to, but I can’t! As I write, a gale-force
wind is howling through the rigging and waves are crashing against the
hull… and I’m moored up on the pontoon at Wicormarine! Votes are
starting to trickle in and currently favour a route around the coast of South Africa, Cape of Good Hope and back up to India via Madagascar
and the Seychelles.
That might have something to do with my trip to Shanghai a couple of weeks ago where I met
with several members of the Shanghai Boat and Yacht Club ( www.shanghaibyc.org ) of which my
brother Colin is Commodore. An easterly route would almost guarantee a cruise
up the east coast of China
and as I’ll be flying the SBYC burgee, it would be fantastic to dodge the
pirates to grace the shores of this unfathomable, chaotic and dynamic city.
So, you could argue that the weather in Portsmouth right now would be incentive
enough to just slip the lines and head for the lower latitudes! With recent
reports of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Atlantic
and with this disgusting weather battering the south coast, I can’t help
but feel a little apprehensive about the prospect. I am still excited about my imminent departure though –
very excited actually. I helped my friend Chris sail his Grand Soleil 42 Swagman across the notorious Bay of Biscay
a week ago and having faced enormous seas for the second time in the Bay, I’ll
be embarking on my adventure confident in my own ability to cope and certain
that tolerating (perhaps even relishing) the rough stuff is always rewarded
with a few precious moments of extraordinary sailing. Take for example, midway
between La Coruna and Ushant
in the middle of the Bay, on my night watch, accompanied by half a dozen
dolphins playfully leaping through a spectacularly phosphorescent bow-wave. It
really was one of those rare moments that defies adequate explanation and yet
remains etched vividly on the memory in exquisite detail.
Media Interest Explodes… well, pops a
bit!
On Tuesday, I issued a statement to the Press Association.
The Southern Daily Echo, a local south coast newspaper had covered the story of
my single-handed dice adventure with a full page (page 3!) article and it
became clear that there might be some mainstream media interest. Yachting
Monthly had covered the story back in April and again in May but besides that,
nobody from the yachting press had really got terribly excited about the
concept. Well, the result was spectacular. In just two days, I have appeared
live on a number of radio stations from Spain
and Miami to, well, Portsmouth and featured in the News pages of
several local and national newspapers. I spent yesterday morning filming with
the BBC’s South Today program (or is it ‘programme’,
I’m never sure!) and have scheduled some more filming with ITV this
weekend.
Watch the South Today clip here… http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/7599101.stm
By the way, if you were wondering, when I threw the dice to
decide how Tom would get ashore (dinghy or swimming!), it really was the first
‘take’ in which the dice revealed a ‘five’ to secure
his place on the tender… honest!
So, it’s all just a bit of fun and I’m enjoying
my 15 minutes of fame but with any luck this exposure will, at the very least,
introduce a few more people to the project. If it attracts a sponsorship offer
then that would of course be a huge boost but by coincidence (he couldn’t
possibly have seen the BBC news article), I had an email from Luke
Rhinehart’s PR Agent last night! If you don’t know already, Luke
Rhinehart wrote several best-selling books including The Dice Man which, besides enjoying massive international
success, was the inspiration for my own Dice adventure. We’ll see where
that goes but I am honoured to have received best wishes not just from Luke and
his team but from the presenter of Discovery Channel’s Diceman Travel Show; Russell Harris. Luke
and Russell are both keen sailors and are following the W2N project with
interest.
Check out…
http://www.lukerhinehart.net/New-Home.html
http://www.diceman.co.uk/
Minoru Saito ‘Challenge 8’
Oh, and while you’re at it, one week after my
departure from Portsmouth, 74 year old Minoru Saito will be setting off on his
eighth… yes, eighth single-handed non-stop circumnavigation. Follow his
incredible adventure here… http://www.saito8.com/index.htm
‘Live’ Position Reports and
Blog
Keep your eyes on the website (www.w2n.co.uk) for a new and exciting addition
coming very soon. I’ve subscribed to a package designed by www.MailASail.com specifically for
circumnavigators and I’m just waiting for my Web Designer to see if it
can be embedded into the W2N pages. Basically, with my new Iridium Satellite
Telephone, I will be able to submit regular blog updates to the website from
anywhere in the world. Even in middle of the oceans, by submitting a blog
entry, my position, illustrated using Google Maps, will be updated
automatically. The package also works as an email compression software and provides
essential weather information so it really is quite a useful tool.
As I say, it’s currently being developed so if
it’s not yet on the W2N website, you can follow the link here… http://blog.mailasail.com/w2n. Why not
click on ‘List All Users’ and have a read of a few blog entries
from other cruising yachts.
Actually, it’s not related but reminds of a website
that Tom Hepworth, the BBC reporter told me about yesterday. Take a look at http://www.shipais.com/index.php.
It
uses the same AIS technology that I’ve installed on Canasta but it’s interesting to see,
at a glance, the incredible number of ships lurking about out there!
‘Dice’ or ‘Die’?
A dice is just a dice, right? Well you could be forgiven for
thinking that it is simply a tiny cube with the numbers one to six printed or
embossed on each of its six sides. And that’s what I thought too until
the question arose regarding the correct use of ‘dice’ or
‘die’ which prompted what I thought would be a quick glance at
Wikipedia to clarify the issue. Well, a ‘dice’ is in fact a
‘die’ and the plural of ‘die’ is ‘dice’!
Still with me? This is something I shall ignore completely for reasons
I’ll explain shortly but the humble dice are polyhedral, opposite numbers
will usually total seven and the sequence of dots forming the five is known as
a quincunx. There’s more of
course. If you’re interested (I was until I saw the formulas), Wikipedia
goes into infinite detail about probability
but you need to be a boffin to understand it. Apparently, and I’m
certainly not qualified to question it, for a single roll of the dice, the
probability is 1/s. Simple.
For three or more die rolls, the curve becomes more
bell-shaped with each additional die (according to the central limit theorem). The exact probability
distribution Fs,i of a sum of i s-sided
dice can be calculated as the repeated convolution
of the single-die probability distribution with itself.
where
for
all 
and
0 otherwise.
A fastest algorithm would adapt the exponentiation by squaring algorithm,
using 
.
For example, in the triangular curve described above,
Equivalently, one can calculate the probability using combinations: 
So there you go. Simple!
Sadly, there are no algebraic formulae to explain why
I’m going to call a ‘die’ a ‘dice’. In fact most
of my dice decisions will use just one die but I think, like most people,
I’ve managed to survive thirty six years of using the term
‘dice’ erroneously without too much confusion. Perhaps I’ve
avoided associating with such pedantry people who would draw attention to such
a trivial oversight but I don’t think too many people will mind if, for
continuity, I stick to the generic term ‘dice’ to describe the
singular and the plural.
VOTE NOW!
The first serious vote that’ll determine in which
direction I’ll be circumnavigating the world is now online. This one is
for real so log into the forum at http://www.w2n.co.uk/forum.html,
take a look at the options and use your vote carefully! Put simply, there are
only four options to choose from and they are the two canals (Panama or Suez)
or the two capes (Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn).
This vote will run until the 20th September when the winning route
will be announced and the dice will decide the first landfall.
So, from Portsmouth,
the options...
1. Heading SW via the Channel Islands before crossing the Bay of Biscay and
following the coast of Spain and Portugal before turning left at Gibraltar and
committing to an Easterly circumnavigation via the Mediterranean. This would
appear to be the most comfortable option - and it is for a while, except that
an easterly lap would inevitably include a cold and dangerous North Pacific
passage.
2. Heading SW, again down the Spanish / Portuguese coast to Madeira or the
Canary Islands before continuing south and rounding South Africa the long way
via the Cape of Good Hope. Again, this starts by following the recognised
cruising routes but going the long way around South Africa wouldn't be everybody's
choice. Just as with option 1, this route would include an easterly crossing of
the Indian and Pacific oceans although it would include a fascinating cruise
around much of Asia and up the eastern Chinese
coast.
3. Perhaps the most favoured westerly cruising route. Heading SW either
directly from Portsmouth via the Channel Islands and across the Bay of Biscay
or W to Lizard and directly to the Madeira or the Canary Islands before
following the trade winds to the Caribbean. Traditionally, this route would
then continue through the Panama Canal from where there are dozens of
fascinating Pacific
Islands to choose from.
The biggest danger with this option would be catching the tail end of the
'Tropical Storm' season in the Atlantic.
4. Starting just as in option 3, but instead of following the trade winds to
the Caribbean, option 4 would head straight for South
America. This would of course be fascinating but having committed
to a westerly circumnavigation, I would be faced with the reality of
negotiating the Straits of Magellan or perhaps even Cape Horn, the most feared Cape in the world. It really would be an epic adventure
that would make any sailor proud to have achieved but it is a notoriously
dangerous prospect.
Option 1 Mediterranean
Option 2 South Africa
Option 3 Caribbean
Option 4 South America
Okay, so there are the options. You can change your vote as often as you like
but the option with the most votes on 20th September 2008 WILL be the one I'll
commit to. The winning option will determine the general direction and the dice
will then decide each landfall on that route.
Be nice!
THE DICE PARTY
You’ll know by now that the ‘Where to Next?’ circumnavigation
starts on September 21st 2008 – not long now. Well, you would
of course be very welcome to come and wave me off from Wicormarine in Portchester but
I’d like to invite you to a ‘Dice Party’ on September 20th.
I don’t know yet where it’ll be or how many people will turn up but
let me know if you’re interested and I can start thinking of some
suitably random ways of introducing you to the Dice Life! Email me at rob {CHANGE TO AT} w2n {DOT} co {DOT} uk if you think you might be able to
come and I’ll post more information on the next newsletter.
That’s all for now. Thanks for your interest in the
w2n project and please don’t hesitate to contact me with your comments
and thoughts. Please feel free to participate in the forum on the w2n website (www.w2n.co.uk) and introduce your friends to
the project.
All my very best,
Rob (Bee)
You are receiving this newsletter because
you have either registered an interest or because you haven’t – and
I think you should! If you are receiving it in error, please let me know by
simply replying to the email with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.
W2N Global Ltd.
4 Hampshire House
Tunbridge Lane
Liphook
Hampshire GU30 7SP
UK
+44 (0)7967 661157
rob {CHANGE TO AT} w2n {DOT} co {DOT} uk
