Stars, Hurricanes and the Grenada Dove

Vega
Hugh and Annie
Mon 22 Aug 2016 17:57
12:0.13N 61:44.55W
As part of getting back into the swing of cruising life we motored around in the dinghy from Le Phare Bleu, the marina where we have been berthed, to the monthly full moon party in a boat yard in the next bay. We were a bit nervous about the line of the channel through the reef around the headland having gone aground in a Hobie Cat on our last attempt. However, honeymooners Nick and Mazz had done the same journey a couple of times and had pointed out that you have to stay inside the line of marker buoys and not outside as we had assumed. The party lived up to its name with a brilliant full moon, cloudless sky and no wind. The first band that played was an ad hoc group of sailors that included Gary, an Australian working out here for two years, who is a brilliant saxophone player and was perfect for all the Chris Rea and similar numbers they played. Annie is invited to their weekly jam/practice session but may need some encouraging to take her own saxophone if she goes along. We met up with Paul, Jayne and Lily with whom we had shared the villa visit on Martinique and Jayne was able to point out that we could see at one time all the other visible planets from our solar system i.e. Mars, Mercury, Saturn, Jupiter and Venus. I was too tired to stay up for the Persiad meteor shower back in Bristol but out here it is dark at 1830 and the brilliance of the night sky is spellbinding. Vega is directly overhead at the moment and at sunset yesterday the international Space Station put in an appearance.
At this time of year the sailors all keep a close eye out for developing tropical storms. Most forecasts are for up to a week ahead and on the whole are surprisingly accurate, even if precise wind speeds and so on cannot be relied upon even 24 hours ahead. Normally, but not always, tropical storms develop in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and track westwards across the Atlantic. As they approach the Caribbean they usually track in a north west direction which is why the risk of one hitting Grenada is about once every 50 years. At the moment there is excitement about three developing systems, one of which has been named Tropical Storm Fiona. Fiona has stayed out in the Atlantic to the north of us and presents no threat. The second, at this stage called Invest99, has been the cause of greatest excitement, coming across the Atlantic at a latitude below Grenada. Although the forecasts are a week ahead the development and trajectory of the systems remains variable and projections are made based upon things like sea temperature, wind sheer, ridges and most significantly “tropical waves”. I’ve yet to find out what a tropical wave is but Canadian friends Randy and Beth have been sending through detailed forecast analyses that refer to them and lots of other things that make the whole explanation unfathomable. Instead we revert to the pretty pictures offered by Passageweather that animate weather systems for the week ahead and I recommend a look if you want to see what is happening. So, given the inherent uncertainties, you get a week of anxiety as to how seriously you should take offerings such as the one reproduced below -

Invest99 lies near 10N/33W, and is a potential threat to Caribbean / Bahamas / GOMEX / entire US Coast.

Combination of dry air, marginal sea surface temps and moderate shear should retard development thru Sat20 or Sun21...but environmental conditions should be more supportive beginning about Mon22.
Among long-range Global models, 18 of 21 GFS Ensemble members / most Canadian Ensemble members / but only 3 of 51 EURO Ensemble members predict Tropical LO formation.
NAVGEM / COAMPS / GFDL / UKMet show little-or no development thru Tue23.
HWRF predicts Invest99 becomes TS Gaston Sun21 night / passes StLucia as 80k Hurricane Wed24.
NOAA assesses 10% chance Invest99 becomes Tropical LO thru Sun21 / 50% chance thru Wed24... this morning we increased our assessment to 70% chance, and we'll stick with that.
TRACK: Invest99 should move W along 10N-12N thru Sun21 or Mon22. Only after significant development occurs is Invest99 likely to gain significant N Latitude.
Our most reliable models, and the consensus of Ensemble members predicting development suggest Invest99 may approach SE Caribbean (Barbados-Windwards) early Wed24...then turn NW, making closest approach to Leewards Wed24 night / VIs-PR-DR Thu25 / Bahamas Fri26-Sat27. Any impacts on US E Coast would not be until Sun28 at the earliest.
Especially if Invest99 develops Mon22, he could turn NW before reaching E Caribbean, and threaten only Bermuda and the offshore W Atlantic. However, if Invest99 fails to develop until Tue23 or thereafter (very close to (or once in) the Caribbean) he could threaten any of the Caribbean/GOMEX/Bahamas/US Coast.
INTENSITY: Models suggest that, if Invest99 develops, it may become a strong Cat3-Cat5 Hurricane, capable of significant damage.
Invest99 is the 1st credible threat of the season for Caribbean. All interests N of about Trinidad (from Grenada-Leewards-VIs-PR) should have a PLAN in place to prepare for a Major Cat3-Cat5 Hurricane as soon as Wed24, and be prepared to put your PLAN into action with sufficient lead time to complete your preparations by the end of Tue23.

Based upon the above we pencilled in a lift out of the water for today, being preferable to hot footing it in convoy with many others down to Trinidad. However as of this morning things look unlikely to develop so we will cancel. The third system tracking across from Africa looks quite nasty but all the forecasts are for it to head north before the Caribbean…………….
In the meantime we have taken our minds off hurricanes with some bird watching in the local woodlands and salt marshes looking for the elusive and very rare Grenada Dove (estimated only 200 still with us). We think we heard one but that is the nearest we can get to confirming that the remaining few haven’t been eaten (all varieties of dove being a food source for the locals).